Foreign Trade Market: From Market Shifts to Model Transformation

China is the world’s largest furniture producer. According to CSIL’s World Furniture Outlook, China accounted for nearly 40% of global furniture output in 2017, with exports representing roughly one-third of total production capacity.

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By 2025, however, furniture exports face a new reality: tariff barriers, geopolitical tensions, and volatile shipping costs have become the norm. More fundamentally, global industry division is being reshaped, with higher environmental standards, compliance costs, and IP protection weakening the viability of low-price, scale-driven growth.

1、Changes in Export Structure and Target Markets

In the first three quarters of 2025, China’s furniture exports totaled USD50.177 billion, down 4.6% year-on-year and broadly flat versus 2023 (CNFA).

Two key trends stand out:

（1）More diversified export markets

Data from Furniture Today shows that direct exports to the U.S. declined steadily from 27.5% in 2022 to 23.3% in 2025, hitting a low of 17.3% in May 2025 before rebounding in October.

Meanwhile, exports to ASEAN countries are rising sharply. OEC data shows the fastest growth in non-wood furniture components from China to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore between 2023 and 2024.

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This trend is clearly reflected at CIFF Guangzhou, where Southeast Asian buyers—especially from Vietnam and Malaysia—now make up a growing share of procurement orders, offsetting declines from Europe and the U.S.

（2）Cross-border e-commerce and bonded logistics buck the trend

According to CNFA’s Q3 2025 report, while general trade still dominates exports, its share is declining. Bonded logistics and cross-border e-commerce reached USD3.757 billion, accounting for 7.5% of exports—up over one percentage point from previous years.

This signals a shift away from bulk shipments toward flexible, small-batch, fast-delivery models.

2、Opportunities Behind the Changes

（1）Growth potential in non-U.S. markets

While some export shifts are attributed to transshipment, research suggests that only 30% of growth in non-U.S. markets comes from short-term rerouting, with 70% driven by genuine demand growth (Shenwan Hongyuan).

As urbanization accelerates and investment rises in emerging economies, Chinese exporters must move from passive capacity relocation toward proactive localization strategies.

（2）Cross-border e-commerce as a structural growth engine

Despite skepticism, platforms such as Wayfair, Amazon, Alibaba, and TEMU are rapidly increasing furniture penetration worldwide. Platform investment and consumer behavior shifts make this trend irreversible.

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Furniture companies must treat cross-border e-commerce not as a side channel, but as a way to build direct customer access, brand presence, and data insight.

（3）Upgrading the global positioning of going global

Low-price competition is no longer sustainable. Long-term winners invest simultaneously in R&D, design, patents, and branding, building defensible value.

Functional sofa ODMs that have strengthened original design and patent portfolios now command stable premiums in North America and Europe—pointing to a new normal for global expansion.

Reading Industry Change Through Exhibitions:

Greater Differentiation, Emerging Niche Opportunities

In 2025, exhibition differentiation accelerated. Ill-positioned shows saw declining participation, while leading exhibitions continued attracting high-quality exhibitors.

1、From Style Showcases to Category Growth Platforms

Trends now emerge first on social media, with exhibitions serving as validation stages. More importantly, exhibitions have become launchpads for high-growth categories such as functional sofas, modular customization, and light premium customization.

Through sustained support for smart sleep, wellness, and senior-friendly products, China International Furniture Fair (Guangzhou) has helped shape multiple industry growth hubs.

2、Blurring Lines Between Domestic and Export Markets

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Domestic players are expanding overseas, while export-focused firms explore local retail channels. Each faces capability gaps—making exhibitions critical platforms for cross-market empowerment and reduced trial-and-error costs.

March in Guangzhou:

A Forward-Looking Window into Industry Opportunities

Pressure will persist, but opportunity lies in structural change. As the first major exhibition of 2026, CIFF Guangzhou—held March 18–21 (Home Furniture) and March 28–31 (Office, Commercial & Machinery)—offers a key vantage point.

Under the theme ‘Chain Innovation’, the 2026 edition emphasizes sustainability, smart living, and aging-friendly solutions, alongside design-driven value creation and global ecosystem expansion.

For 2026, the message is clear: don’t wait—act. Capture niche domestic demand, diversify export channels, embrace cross-border e-commerce, and leverage exhibition platforms to integrate resources and upgrade capabilities.

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When change accelerates, decisive action is the only way to uncover new growth—and win the future.